ClimateGate : Is this station used by the “hockey-team”? Probably.

Here’s a pretty interesting adjustment, I’d say. SMHI and GHCN unadjusted match up nicely, the adjustment seems a bit “political” though. Who knows …

Karesuando Temperature Station

More soon …

ClimateGate : Doing the real work

While the screaming AGW lot is busy shouting their heads off about things, I went and did what you have to do if you want to find something out : Check the data yourself. After some looking I found a public source for the ground temperature measurements from Sweden, from our national meteorological institute (SMHI). So I took this data, and started comparing it to the GHCN dataset. Now – I would love to say that I have a smoking gun for you – but sofar no. However, it goes to intellectual honesty to present your results anyway. So here goes :

Haparanda Temperature Station

This one lines up pretty nicely. Green is SMHI, red dashed is unadjusted GHCN and blue is GHCN adjusted. Basically identical data – no adjustments.

Frösön Temperature Station

This one is a bit skewed. While the lines match up decently, adding trendlines shows that while the unadjusted data from GHCN (red) matches SMHI, there has been slight adjustments. However, this may be to some factor I am not aware of, so not much to complain about here.

Visby Airport Temperature Station

This one is a bit fudgier. The GHCN dataset contains two series for this location (SMHI only one). The red and blue dashed lines fit up fairly well with the original green line, however – someone has clearly smacked the orange line (adjusted) around a bit. With added trendlines (too much information to put in same graph – becomes unviable)

Visby Airport Temperature Station

So, while there are yet no smoking guns – the stations I’ve looked at sofar match up decently with the data I pulled from Swedish SMHI, I will keep on it until I’ve gone through all the Swedish series. I showed how total adjustments for different countries added up here.

That’s it for now,

// Climate-Freak

Is the US job summit a cover-up for bailing out the states?

There is murmuring about a new “jobs bill” that will be introduced soon, right after Obama and the unions have decided how to best “create jobs”. But what kind of jobs will these be? Might it be that these jobs will be state public jobs, that will not be “created” rather “saved”, meaning the bill will be nothing but a big wad of cash dumped on those states which are most fiscally unsound?

Worth considering. I have held – and still do, that if the US Federal government starts bailing out individual states, it’s all over. The US economy will thereafter be completely at the whim of politicians, which means bankrucy. Interesting times in this surreal economic landscape.

2 degrees of hell

Not that it matters, but I hope you (and by you I mean “brainless AGW proponents”) realize that in order to reduce the CO2 emissions to the extent that you are proposing (which is completely unneccesary), you will have to give up the following :

• Your IPOD – to expensive production process.
• Your computer – drains too much energy, and it is not “crucial” for your survival
• Your warm bed – at least if you live in a country where you need heating indoors. Heating takes too much energy.
• Your brand-name clothing. Hah!
• Your habit of hot showers. See warm bed.
• Your possibility to get to work without taking the bicycle for 2+ hours. Commute, commute, commute. And forget about division of labour – because most people will have to work with anything they can find within the closest few miles. Bummer – there wen’t more wealth.
• Your possibility to eat anything besides the cheapest crops. Think boiled potatoes. Only boiled potatoes (because without fuel – there are now agricultural machines – which means no large-scale agriculture – which means less food. A lot less). Ah – but see, we might be able to score you some raw turnips to, if you’re lucky. For heated food, see previous points.
• Your job. There will be two jobs : Farmer, and farmers helper. There is no point in making machinery that requires electricity or fuel – since there won’t be much of that going around. No, handmade tools are probably the only thing worth making. Back to the good old days, when you died of exhaustion, a toothless ugly wreck at the remarkable age of 50.
• Your light. Nope – lightbulbs are not worth the energy they cost. And with the energy going into creating those new poisonous bulbs, it’ll be even worse.
• Your freedom. With lack of wealth comes lack of political stability, which leads to serfdom. It sure was nice with freedom of speech, wasn’t it?

Shaping up quite nicely, this new green economy, dontcha think?? Just for the record – I’m not joining you. Sorry.

DN

Rajendra Pachauri : You lie!

It’s almost obscene, how these IPCC-members can come out and say that the scientific process behind climate science is sound, and that there is a multitude of evidence. The sad fact is this – aside from the “hockey-team” and a few dozen of their closest collegues – all other publications in the entire field of climate science point to lack of evidence for the catastrophic scenarios told by the IPCC. You don’t know the first thing about science, Mr. Pachauri, do you? You’re just another elected politruck who read the lines you are given by the men who decide the agenda. Have you read even one of the emails? Have you thought even once about the implications?

Go ahead and step on the poor, go right ahead. Make sure more people starve, lack electricity and have lower quality of life – all because you brainless bunch decided it was your time to play “save the world”. Kumba-effing-ya. With leaders like you, it is beginning to draw near that time when people no longer do what they are told.

And for you brainless sheeple – before you say that the science is settled – name me ONE SINGLE ARTICLE that provides proof of the IPCC forecasts. One. 1. But you can’t – can you?

DN

Money for nothing

COP15 – selling your future for mindless feel-goodery. And dont bother leaving “the science is settled” comments around here, because while you dummies where out shouting slogans and making cute little “350″ signs on the squares – I took a look at the science. And after spending a few hundred hours looking at it, there really is only one conclusion : It’s a piece of junk. This isn’t a scientific debate – it’s a political debate. And if you want to be part of the lean, mean green slavery-machine then go ahead. It’s you who is going to be out of work, out of energy, out of prosperity. Not me. See, I can take care of myself (capitalists tend to do that) – but the government you are so relying on to save you from all evil is going to fail you. By playing the political game of “we are your saviours! rejoice!”, they may just destroy the world economy to the extent that when the next generation has grown up – we’re all living by African poverty standards.

But that’s really what it’s all about, isn’t it? Making everyone equally bad off? Eco-fascists – f*ck off.

Where did the warming go?

Only the gods of natural variation knows. From Wasington Times.

Irresponsible investment advice #1

Following this advice may lead to loss of money, but anyone who has the intellect above a dung-beetle would be able to figure this out. I’m buying gold when it nears the $1100 mark. Why? Because that would be an appropriate decline to the general trendline upwards. Also, I strongly suspect that those wanting to buy wont dare stay out longer than that.

For the record – yes, I took a pretty good beating this friday. And sofar – today as well. Does that mean I have changed my outlook? Nope. Not one bit. The dollar may show some temporary strength, but as long as x hundred billion need to be recycled annually because of the trade deficit, the USD is in a downward trend. I have already started to add to my short positions for the USD. Not something I would recommend as much as the gold play, but I’m a bit of a crazy person sometimes. Looking at the spike from Friday it doesn’t tell me more than a few of the weaker dollar shorts being thrown out of their stops, and possibly the Japanese and Chinese brightening up for a couple of weeks since they can ease back on the “competitive devaluation”-schemes for a while.

Also, if it turns out that Japan has just started the Reverse Forex Insanity Machine 2.0 , meaning that they are trying to strengthen the dollar by creating demand for it through Treasury sales – then you can bet your sweet behind it’s time to go short Treasuries – even if the dollar goes up – the oversupply could become catastrophic.  And again – I strongly suspect that the millisecond the dollar goes above necessary “east-asia-export-par-level”, then Japan and China are going to claw back some of their own currencies strength by dumping a boatload of recycled USD on the forex market.

At least, that’s what I think. I’ll be proven wrong if the USD index goes up through the 78-80 level.

The climate scare is officially over. Go home. Nothing to see.

Politicians are notoriously slow to catch on to what is actually happening, and this time proves no different. While we recently got news that not only is Phil Jones stepping down, Mike Mann under investigation and the rest of the “hockey-team” in hiding – NASA is now being sued, presumably with the crosshairs firmly nailed at a certain James Hansen. The scientific community as a whole is in complete outrage, and every scientist that has been pushed out of the debate and had their careers ruined by the AGW elite for having the nerve to question authority are now coming out with their stories. Even noted AGW-proponents like George Monbiot has said that this calls for a complete review of what the anglo-american hockey-team has been up to the last decade.

But politicians are busy flying to Copenhagen, for one final act of self-admiration, as they make glorious propositions of how they will shut down the entire industrial society in 2015, despite everyone who knows a bit of math knowing that the climate effect of this will be miniscule at best. And while Choi&Lindzen recently used 20 years of satellite-data and put the climate sensitivity at about 1/6th of previously assessed (meaning there is no freaking way in h*ll that the AGW disaster theories hold up) – the politicians refuse to listen. WE MUST DRIVE THE WORLD INTO POVERTY TO PROVE OUR IMPORTANCE! Wake up people. There isn’t a politician in the world that cares about the big abstraction “the climate”, they only care about their careers. You, as the useful idiot, is being set up as the vehicle for their glorious parade, which will put its boots in the faces of the poor, pushing out the wealthbringers of the world – all while chanting “sanity be damned” and waving red and brown fascist flags with mysterious symbols on.

Maybe it won’t be that bad. But look at the news. The political class and their intellectual jesters have actually made such a mess of things that young people are trying to starve themselves to death “because of the climate threat”. The world is going to need mass-debriefing sessions after this. Repeat after me : We are not going to die. The climate is not going to explode. We have all been conned. And maybe, after 20 of so years of gettign to read articles about how science really works, as we sit in our igloos when the next ice age has arrived – the brainless youth of today will finally get it. About time.

And just maybe, there will be a real debate about why you shouldn’t believe the authoritarian state. Just maybe, people will wake up to the fact that politicians are bought and paid for by special interest. It isn’t a secret, you know. Just go check who funds your favourite political party. And meanwhile the pathetic “old media” trip over themselves to be politically correct, their 3 remianing real readers (two computer-scanners and an old lady who is to senile to figure out how to cancel her subscription) marvel at how well-reported the world is today. Thanks but no thanks. The “blogosphere” is not going to be remembered for it’s ability as a social networking tool, nor for it giving people the “possibility to express themselves”. No, the blog is going to be remembered for killing 90% of the existing media outlets, by providing numerous new alternatives to reaching news-sources. Heck – before this is over I might have signed a deal with Reuters for getting some live feeds. Because as this blog will clock in at about 30,000 reads this year (a mediocre sum by blog-standards), I probably have more INTERESTED readers than your average newspaper. The sad state of the politically driven media.

Here’s todays Swedish Copenhagen drivel : DN DN SvD SvD

On why the UK is a top #3 candidate for first sovereign default / hyperinflation

It’s quite simple, really. Aside from some troubled nations in East Europe, who are luckily small enough to be rescued by neighbours without severe problems for their saviours, there are now three of the worlds G7 nations at risk for default or hyperinflation within the next 5 years. Here’s the rundown :

Japan : Running at a public debt of over 200% of GDP, and constantly increasing it, any move upwards in the rates of Japanese government bonds spells instant and immediate doom for the Japanese government. The new government, while making weak promises during their campaign to support a stronger yen and stop intervening in the market, quickly reversed their position and is once again openly talking about bringing the yen down against the dollar to avoid killing export growth. Interestingly enough, they have started talking about doing this by selling US Treasuries, something which will hurt the US government a LOT. Which brings us to ….

USA : While the 2009 fiscal deficit of 1.4 trillion dollars was bad – this year may be even worse. Add to that the promise of health-care overhaul and a bleak outlook for ending the Afganistan war (the current “solution” is “increase troops right now and then get the heck out”. It’s not likely to work, is it?). The world is busy selling dollars like maniacs, and for good reason – because the US trade deficit is growing again. No one wants the bloody greenbacks because there is too little that can be bought with them, except the vastly overvalued US stock market. Anyway, with a rollover-rate of the public debt of approx. 4 years, the US administration will be completely helpless once interest rates start ticking upwards, because the oversupply of US Treasuries will leave the market with the realization that interest rates can only go up, and US Treasury prices can only go down, so no one except the US Federal Reserve will be wanting the darn things. And finally…

The United Kingdom : While using the “good years” to increase spending and deficit, the Labour administration is now going to face a brutal beatdown in the coming elections. The problem is that the incoming Tory administration will be in a position equal to, or worse, than the Thatcher administration was. The only option is more or less to cut the government budget to the extent that there will be public outrage. Any excesses over the bare necessities will have to be slashed, trampled and killed. And this they will have to do in a highly inflationary environment, where people have less and less funds for privatly paying for the services the government used to supply them with. UK inflation is currently running over 3.5%, and the Bank of England is showing no signs of concern. This translates to an inflation rate that is likely to hit something like 8-10% before it is under control. The term “stagflation” will become word-of-the-year in 2010-2012. The pain will be coming from all directions, with public cuts, high inflation, high unemployment and higher interest rates. The survival rate of any government under this kind of pressure is very low, and regardless of who is in control, they are highly likely to just order the Bank of England to start printing money to pay for government debt so the whole thing is over with soon.

Here’s the Telegraph, weighing in :

“Earlier this year, the European Commission forecast that unless action was taken to cut state pension costs and healthcare bills, UK public debt would rise from around 60pc of gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 160pc by 2020, 406pc by 2040, and 760pc by 2060. The Treasury attacked such figures as having “no basis in
reality”, and is likely to use its Long-Term Fiscal Projections document as a rejoinder.”