Not quite yet, but its looking increasingly likely. Karl Denninger has a few interesting observations. And basically, the amateurs have once again missed most of the latest race, and are now desperate to get back in. Which they will, while smart money slowly starts selling off their positions. My guess is we get a top somewhere in the next 3-6 months, and then its “Oh, crap!” time again. Don’t take my word for it though, thats just the way it looks.
As a side-business to being a mad goldbug, I’m running a small “dividend portfolio”, which is sort of preparation for retirement. Unless I have to go Smith&Wesson as the Captain says. And my observation from dividend investing is this : It’s getting expensive. I refuse to buy hyped crap like Coca-Cola and CrApple with dividends of 2.5% and P/E-numbers above 20, but even so, the more sanely priced impopular stocks are getting more expensive. It’s not ridiculously expensive yet, but I suspect its going to be if the market tacks on another average 10-15%.
So, my take? Don’t buy stocks. Before runaway inflation hits, you are likely to be able to get them cheaper. As usual, it’s damn near impossible to do what one should and invest more in the most depressed sector of them all (gold mining shares) but at least don’t sell what you have, if you have any. Throw them in a drawer and be happy come 2015. Probably even happier come 2018.